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Global
warming could force one-fourth of the globe's plant
and animal species to the brink of extinction by
2050, according to a study published today in the
journal Nature.
Chris
Thomas, University of Leeds conservation biology
professor and lead author of Feeling the Heat:
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Climate
Change and Biodiversity Loss, said the earth's rising
temperatures, in tandem with burgeoning agriculture and
the proliferation of invasive species, would leave many
plants and animals with vanishing habitats.
If all threatened species were able to relocate to more
suitable climates, only 15 percent would face extinction
by mid-century. If none could relocate, that number would
soar to 37 percent, Thomas said, adding that the reality
would doubtless lie between the two extremes.
"The
midrange estimate is that 24 percent of plants and animals
will be committed to extinction by 2050," Thomas said.
"We're not talking about the occasional extinction - we're
talking about 1.25 million species. It's a massive number."
Some
species are equal to the task of migrating to new habitats,
Thomas said, others less so. The silver-studded blue butterfly,
for example, is a weak flier dependent on a food source
found in clusters separated by large gaps, and it cannot
make the journey between habitats (Guy Gugliotta, Washington
Post, Jan. 8). In general, mountain species are better
off since they can simply move uphill to cooler climes,
whereas flatland species face the daunting task of making
latitudinal adjustments (Paul Brown, London Guardian,
Jan. 8).
The
Washington Post reports that the study marks the first
time scientists have analyzed the effects of climate change
on a global scale. Whereas previous research has focused
on smaller areas or species groups, this study combined
the work of 19 scientists studying the decline of more
than 1,100 species in five regions on four continents
encompassing 20 percent of the earth's surface and a wide
range of terrestrial zones (Gugliotta, Washington Post).
It did not examine the oceans.
U.N.
Environment Program Executive Director Klaus Toepfer said
the report highlights the need to curb global warming
through the cutbacks in greenhouse gas emissions outlined
in the Kyoto Protocol. The global agreement has foundered
on the unwillingness of the United States and Russia to
impose restrictions on industry.
"This
alarming report underlines again to the world the importance
of bringing into force the Kyoto Protocol," Toepfer said
(Alister Doyle, Reuters, Jan. 8).
Copyright,
National Journal Group, 2004
